New base case is stocks up and oil up in tandem
(Source: x.com/_OH_71/status/2044139565112537410 )

oil bottom imo
(Source: x.com/_OH_71/status/2044426267530002890

expect a dramatic premium will reemerge as we get closer to front month expiry since brent is CASH SETTLED to average dated prices in the north sea (~$120)

CL is physically delivered at cushing so it can trade at (spot - freight costs) even at expiry.
(Source: x.com/_OH_71/status/2044817164981694485 )